2019 Energy, Resources & Marine Travel Forecast

We get your business. We get you there.

Welcome note

Welcome

Welcome to our 2019 travel forecast for the Energy, Resources and Marine industries. After a few challenging years for these sectors, we have experienced a slow but steady recovery in 2018. We are happy to report a more positive outlook for the year ahead, albeit one with a few big caveats.

In the energy sector, we expect continued growth with an oil price per barrel in the $70 range through 2019. However, companies remain cautiously optimistic and keep their focus on cost control and driving efficiencies. Prices for most of the energy, metals and minerals commodities have been going up, promising more investments. We are also seeing growth in the shipping sector driven by a stronger global economy. As a key center with many interesting developments, we shine the spotlight on Houston a few times throughout this forecast.

Looming in the background of these positive developments is the insecurity caused by political tensions, threats of trade disruption and local economic instabilities. A new isolationist front is growing among recently elected leaders, putting pressure on import tariffs and creating disruption in established international trade agreements. The outcome of Brexit is still anyone’s guess, and various Latin American governments remain unstable – most notably Venezuela, where the end of a dire situation is not yet in sight for a population in crisis.

These factors make forecasting difficult, as any change would send ripple effects throughout the economy. Nevertheless, we expect air and hotel prices to rise nearly everywhere in the coming year to varying degrees. Ancillary costs are a key factor driving prices up, which leads us to look at the value of Lowest Logical Air Fares. We also identify some trends we see in the air and hotel sectors, like the use of Premium Economy Class and the rising popularity of boutique hotels.

Of course, we would not leave you without a few key recommendations from our experts. We hope they help you keep down the cost of travel in a market on the rise. Enjoy the read!

Raphaël Pasdeloup
Senior Vice President
CWT Energy, Resources & Marine

Industry spotlight from our sponsor

United, in partnership with CWT, is proud to sponsor the 2019 Energy, Resources and Marine Travel Forecast as a natural extension of our deeply rooted commitment to this industry.

We are encouraged by the recent improvements in the energy sector after a lengthy downturn. This rebound, combined with the continued diversification of the Houston market, is driving strength in the local economy and attracting new talent to the region.

What does this mean for air travel? Buyers remain cautious with travel policies, looking for ways to minimize costs while delivering maximum value and comfort to their travelers. This has generated more demand for Premium Economy, resulting in an overall increase of premium seats in the marketplace. To meet the traveler demand for an improved experience, buyers are managing their programs to consider the overall value proposition versus fare alone.

United is keeping pace with the demands of this new environment, investing in the traveler experience through new and enhanced product offerings such as Premium Plus, as well as aggressive growth at our hubs. This is evident at the Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport, with our recently-opened United Polaris Lounge, a state-of-the art Terminal C North, and even more nonstop domestic and international flight options providing greater convenience to travelers in the energy capital of the world.

Thank you again for choosing United as your ERM air travel solution. We appreciate your business and look forward to seeing you onboard soon.

Jake Cefolia
Senior Vice President – Worldwide Sales, United Airlines

Global macroeconomic overview

Growth within the ‘new normal’

The price of oil and commodities dictates industry activity levels and investment, especially in the energy, resources and marine (ERM) sectors. Companies in the established markets have emerged from the 2016 slump leaner and more efficient. They have largely accepted this situation as the ‘new normal’: few expect a return to $100/barrel anytime soon.

Crude prices have been rising steadily, however, giving way to feelings of cautious optimism – but any activity is undertaken from a place of extreme prudence. The emerging markets remain on a somewhat steadier path to growth thanks to rising commodity prices. We therefore predict modest overall growth heading into 2019, albeit at a slow pace.

A world of uncertainty

The big unknown for 2019 is how various political situations will influence the economy. Swift changes and surprise policy decisions mark the current climate. US trade policy remains unpredictable, and changes to important trade agreements like NAFTA may prove impactful. The IMF has also warned against the adverse consequences of more import tariffs in the US.

Elsewhere too, political commitment to globalization has weakened since the financial crisis, giving rise to increasingly isolationist policies. A number of key countries are faced with political uncertainty: Venezuela remains unstable, the outcome of Brexit is still unclear, and the balance in the US could shift in the upcoming midterm elections.¹ Any of these factors could have substantial consequences for the global economy.

The Houston market: strength in diversity

The continually diversifying Houston marketplace is illustrative of the trends we see in the global economy. Traditionally an energy market, it is now handling more container traffic and adding manufacturing services. This variety is driving growth. While the local energy sector reported mixed results in 2017, revenue from global trade and foreign investment went up.²

While diversification helps dampen the impact of crude oil prices in Houston, its market is especially vulnerable to changes in international trade policy. With Mexico as the city’s biggest trade partner, a US decision to pull out of NAFTA will have serious consequences. Similarly, increased sanctions against second-largest partner China will heavily impact import and export levels. More restrictive immigration policies are a concern too, as 40% of the Houston workforce is immigrant.³

Energy

A climate of cautious optimism

Since the economic downturn of 2016, most energy companies have been waiting for better days. And it looks like they may finally have arrived — albeit with a caveat.

As oil prices keep rising slowly, activity is picking up, although most of it is still very cautious. U.S. exploration and production budgets as well total world rig count are both up from 2016, when prices slumped.⁴ In addition to investments in low cost shale fields, we see increased interest in conventional oil projects around the world, which is helping support services recover. In the Asia-Pacific region, the outlook is more optimistic than elsewhere. India is seeing sustained growth and Australia is on track to become the world’s leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter.⁵

One effect of the recent downturn is that most companies have invested in optimizing their business processes and now run more efficiently. Increased digitization also means that the workforce is diversifying and new skills are needed, which may help fuel further growth.

Renewables on the rise

Renewables remain the fastest-growing energy market globally. While this trend is set to continue, renewables still only account for about 3% of global primary energy consumption.⁶ As most companies are currently weary of long-term investments, we are not seeing a big swing to renewables just yet. Most are hedging their bets. While many firms now have a (comparatively small) renewable arm, they invest primarily in more sustainable ways of getting fossil fuels out of the ground.

Resources

Rising commodity prices fuel activity

Prices for most commodities are on the rise, and expected to stay on that path. Rising global demand and some supply bottlenecks are key reasons, but policy is impactful too: prices for aluminum and nickel skyrocketed in April after the US imposed sanctions on the world’s largest aluminum producing company, Rusal.⁷

While higher prices may be good news for the industry, unpredictability in policy-making also has a negative impact. In March, metal prices fell amid nervousness about the threat of a trade war between the US and China. More recently talk of possible tariffs on uranium coming into the US made biggest supplier Canada nervous.⁸ This uncertainty is likely to continue affecting the market, making it hard to predict any trends with certainty.

During the last downturn the mining sector was the first to take a big hit, so it is the first to really benefit from the economy picking up.

Marty Lonergan, Senior Director, Global Program Management, CWT Energy, Resources and Marine – Asia-Pacific

Overall, the sector looks set for a new wave of investments, most notably in Australia, where mining is seeing growth even as the energy sector in the country remains mostly flat.

Marine

Slow growth in a diverse sector

Growth in the marine sector is often a bellwether for the overall state of the economy, and as expected the picture is mixed. Generally, growth in the sector is fairly flat, but service vessels for the energy industry are benefiting from the slow upturn in that sector.

Container transport vessels are also seeing an increase in work as the overall economy picks up.⁹ 2017 was a good year for the industry with a 6% rise in global container port volume, but rising costs and oversupply remain challenges for the sector going forward. Additionally, China is a key hub of container transport, and its booming growth from the last decades is gradually plateauing.¹⁰ The outlook is therefore one of slow growth, much like in the rest of the economy, barring any unpleasant surprises in the form of sudden political upheavals.

Fisheries: caught in a trade war

The fisheries industry is uncertain by its nature, as all depends on whether the fish turn up. The good news is that strong regulations have generally helped fish stocks return to healthy levels, ensuring a sustainable future. The weather, however, is still a decisive factor. This year, the Gulf of Alaska has been hit by a warm water blob, strongly affecting salmon stock.¹¹

Adding to the uncertainty is current US trade policy. The growing trade dispute between the U.S. and China may impact global supply food chains and cause companies to pull back on investments, including in travel. The impact is felt most keenly in Alaska, which represents 60% of all seafood caught in the US. More than half of it is shipped overseas for secondary processing. Levy on seafood imported from China will include Alaska products reprocessed in the country.¹² China has threatened a retaliatory 25% tariffs on U.S. seafood products, including those produced in Alaska.¹³

Impact on travel

Air

Ancillary fees make cheap tickets expensive

The 2016 crunch made companies leaner and more efficient. The same goes for travel. With prices expected to grow 2.6% globally in 2019,¹⁴ most firms now have tighter policies and a stronger focus on compliance. Generally, this is a healthy trend. When a barrel of oil cost over $100, many companies squandered money on travel with little regard for potential savings. However, there are downsides too.

Many firms are now trying to save as much as they can on air fares
by booking the lowest available fares. That doesn’t always work out to
their advantage, as these fares have many restrictions. Any changes or
extra services will cost the company more down the line than if they had
booked a more flexible, if slightly higher, fare in the first place.

These extra costs and services are where airlines are getting most of their
profit in a market where margins on the actual ticket fare are eroding.
Airlines are becoming ever more creative with the types of services they
provide, from fees for using the overhead storage bins to offering ground
transport bookings.

The rise of premium economy

As the economy slowly picks up, we see more airlines invest in
premium economy seating, and more companies making use of it too.
During the downturn, employees were largely sent to the back of the
cabin. Rather than a rush back to the front, we are now seeing a
preference for the middle.

The growth of premium economy comes at the expense of economy
seats rather than business class. There is a lot of variation at the
individual company level, but the general trend seems to be an
increased regard for the traveler’s comfort and preferences. This is
a healthy trend, likely to lead to greater policy compliance and a
happier travel population.

Hotel

Consolidation: a double-edged sword

We continue to see consolidation in the hotel industry. Many brands are trying to round out their portfolio, now offering choices from budget to luxury - and for a variety of occasions. More importantly, loyalty programs continue to be a big driver of revenue for hotel brands and strongly influence traveler choices. Travelers can now find rooms that earn them loyalty points at nearly every price point, anywhere in the world.

The trend also has a downside: more and more hotels are trying to introduce stricter cancellation policies, which are easier to enforce as a global brand than as a small independent property. We expect this to become a big talking point in the next few years, especially for the ERM industry, where flexibility is often required.

Boutique on the rise

Despite the growth of global mega-brands, boutique hotels are an ever more popular choice, including in business travel. Many of these hotels are also part of larger brands. Travelers are looking for more authentic, locally-rooted experiences, which small properties tend to be better at offering. In the leisure market, Airbnb helps fulfil this need. For business travel, property sharing still has too many security concerns to be a viable choice, so boutique hotels do the job instead.

A benefit of the great diversity of boutique hotel chains available is that travelers can easily find brands that align with their values. Where sustainability may previously have been low on the list of concerns for business travel managers, travelers should now be able to find eco-friendly hotels fairly easily within their company’s travel policy restrictions. This makes travel feel more personal and customized, and helps with policy compliance.

Keeping travelers safe

Safety and security is always a concern in ERM travel, especially as many key markets or exploration hubs are located in volatile areas. Various Latin American countries still have unstable governments or economies, with Venezuela being the most poignant example at the moment. Many mining destinations in Africa are located in or close to regions threatened by militant Islamist groups.

Yet companies should also assess the risks travelers themselves carry with them. How do you evaluate the physical fitness of workers to see whether they can thrive in often challenging climates? What are the legal consequences if travelers are taken ill in remote locations? Having a designated team comprised of specialists from various departments, and an appointed executive officer, are paramount for an effective security policy within your company.

Travel security assistance organization International SOS highlights the importance of knowing where your staff are at all times. Recent attacks in European capitals have shown that emergencies can happen in low-risk countries too, and reacting fast is hard if you don’t know where your staff is. While most companies still track based on itinerary, there is an increased interest in real-time digital tracking. This often triggers privacy concerns, so it should only be used in case of emergency and with pre-approval of the traveler.

There is also a growing focus on women’s safety while traveling. A key element is to brief female travelers clearly about the local culture, dress standards and general status of women at their destination. International SOS also recommends booking hotels and drivers you have confidence in, booking rooms on higher floors, and carrying a door stopper in your luggage for added security.

Source: International SOS

Americas

Air

Barring any trade policy surprises, air prices in the US are likely to go up in the next year in line with general economic growth. Companies with large air spend should be in a better negotiating position than previous years, which might help mitigate the overall price increase for them.

In Canada, oil sands production is projected to go up more than half a million barrels per day in 2019, according to IHS Markit, as the country fills the void left by Venezuela,¹⁵ but it expects growth to decelerate in 2020. We see a sharp price increase in Calgary for both air and hotel, caused by inflation pressure on the housing market and a minimum wage that is set to rise.

In Latin America, prospects are mixed. Various economies like Colombia, Peru and Chile are on the road to recovery, and therefore likely to see small airfare increases. The Brazilian ERM market is recovering too, but a recently ratified Open Skies deal with the US will probably see airline competition increase.¹⁶

The Brazilian real is also set to depreciate against the dollar; prices should decrease in USD but increase in real.

Venezuela is still in the throes of an economic and humanitarian crisis with no solution on the horizon. The oil-rich country has seen a collapse in crude production after years of underinvestment, combined with a disastrously mismanaged economy. This has led to projections of a 10.1% contraction in 2019, according to Fitch, as oil production fell 28.1% this year.¹⁷

The end of the Houston Express

The Houston air market was shaken up earlier this year when the Houston Express landed for good. SonAir had been flying oil workers non-stop from Houston to Luanda, Angola three times a week for 17 years when operations ceased in March of 2018. A year earlier, it had already opened up the previously private charter to public bookings, hoping to attract tourists as well as business customers after the economic slump reduced demand.

It wasn’t enough to save the Houston Express. While less convenient non-direct routes are available to Luanda, businesses in Houston are eager for a replacement of the direct flight as exploration picks up, but for the time being we don’t see any airlines taking the bait. This is somewhat surprising in a market where ultra-long haul flights are on the rise, and demand for the route may increase again.

What will impact travel supply/demand the most in 2019?

Energy sector rebounding
Airline capacity compression
Expansion of budget hotel brands
Trade sanctions and tariffs

Hotel

In North America we see continued hotel consolidation, which will likely drive prices up slightly as companies have fewer hotel brands to negotiate rates with. New supply to the market consists mainly of boutique hotels, a trend also set to continue. Travelers are showing a preference towards more personalized, local lodging experiences, and boutique hotels have taken the cue: they are honing in on the corporate market as well as leisure travel.

As hotel brands diversify their portfolio, travelers can feel like they are staying in a local, independent hotel, while still earning loyalty points and enjoying brand standards.

Scott Brennan, Chief Growth Officer & Founder, RoomIt by CWT

Hotel prices in Brazil remain highly competitive as the country now has a surplus of rooms after the 2016 Olympics, although we expect to see prices in local currency rise somewhat in the next year. Most countries apart from Venezuela should see a slight increase, similar to the air sector. Colombia reported high occupancy rates in the first half of 2018, likely an effect of increasing exploration in the country.

Europe, Middle East & Africa

Air

While EMEA is a geographically, politically and economically diverse region, we expect air prices to inch up everywhere. Our projections for Nigeria and Angola show that prices in USD will go down significantly, but this is because local currencies are set to depreciate dramatically against the dollar; in their local currency, those markets are also poised for growth.

The price increases are likely to be lower in the Middle East than elsewhere due to strong airline competition in the region, but we still project a marginal increase as carriers attempt to improve their yield. Most African destinations are expected to see traffic volumes rise as exploration picks up. This will drive prices up, as capacity to these places is still insufficient.

Within Europe, growth rates vary but prices are set to rise. Regional carriers dominate as they become ever better at managing inventory and ensuring flights are full. Most have also introduced agile pricing, making early booking advisable – always a crux in the ERM sectors. Recent strikes had a significant impact, with competitor prices shooting up immediately, so any future disturbances may have similar effects.

The Scandinavian countries, and Norway in particular, remain a hot destination for exploration. High demand, combined with the Norwegian krone being set to appreciate against the dollar, means we expect a double-digit price increase to Stavanger.

Hotel

We expect increases in hotel prices to be in line with those in the air sector. Most destinations in Africa and the Middle East are on track for steady growth. In Northern Europe increases will be more moderate, with the exception of Scandinavia. Hoteliers will likely justify the rises by pointing to increasing energy costs. The trend of consolidation also continues, which may decrease competitiveness.

We are seeing more hotel brands willing to negotiate two-year agreements, so brand attachment can be beneficial to companies. In many locations energy firms are able to guarantee a steady room occupation rate, which is attractive to the big hotel chains. More boutique brands are also showing an interest in negotiating in the business market, where they previously tended to aim at tourism.

The factor of uncertainty for 2019 is Brexit. While the outcome of the event is hard to predict at this point, if certain corporations decide to move their headquarters out of the UK we are likely to see an increase in traffic to nearby countries like The Netherlands, Belgium and Germany.

Sharing still out

The sharing economy remains conspicuously absent within the world of business travel. Where ride-sharing apps and Airbnb have quickly become the norm in leisure travel, we aren’t seeing companies use them much. Concerns around security and a lack of predictability in pricing seem to be key factors that put businesses off using these services.

Asia Pacific

Air

We expect prices to increase significantly in all key Asian markets next year as investment picks up. Smaller markets like Indonesia and Malaysia may start playing a bigger role, as these countries benefit from relatively stable governments and are keen to attract large corporations to their shores. The use of low-cost carriers within Asia is also seeing an uptake, which may help unlock these markets.

Rates in China are set to rise moderately. The country’s Civil Aviation Administration recently relaxed restrictions on air fares, allowing for 10% more price fluctuations. There has long been talk of an Open Skies agreement between China and the US,¹⁸ which would have a big impact on prices, but this looks unlikely for 2019 as the Trump administration continues to impose sanctions. Whether these will be relaxed in the wake of more amicable discourse between the US and North Korea remains to be seen.

Australia is heading for more modest growth. Remote locations like Perth are seeing an uptake in both tourism and economic activity, which will push prices up slightly. A new non-stop flight from London to Perth also plays a role.

Ultra-long haul flights are on the rise, with eight out of the 10 longest flights in the world serving the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. Convenience comes at a price, however, and these flights do drive average ticket prices up.

Hotel

As activity picks up, many key destinations are adding capacity, but prices are still set to rise. In China, we see growth in the midscale brands like Hampton by Hilton. Travelers have it increasingly easy to stay in their preferred hotel brand, or at least a subsidiary of it, wherever they travel.

Singapore remains an important hub in the region, attracting activity from a variety of sectors. It serves as the regional headquarters for many companies, attracts tourism and financial services, and is increasingly a key center for the refining of oil by-products. Beds are being added at a fast pace, but prices are still going up thanks to these various influences.

In the whole region, prices are highly variable depending on the city. Perth is seeing growth, but prices are still much lower than pre-2016. Lots of capacity was added before that time, which led to many empty properties during and after the downturn. These are now slowly filling up again, heralding potential new property investment in the area.

Recommendations

Our four key recommendations

Know where (not) to save
Be prepared for emergencies
Use technology (and people) to your advantage
Always consider the traveler

Know where (not) to save

Travel remains a significant cost for companies in the ERM industries, and as exploration picks up, this cost is only set to rise. This, combined with rising air fares, means we often see companies reaching for the lowest available air fares rather than the lowest logical air fares. In the long run, this may not work to their advantage: low fares are restricted, and often ancillary costs will drive up the price. Change fees are also high, so if your company has a fairly high change rate, a less restricted fare may be a better option on balance.

Tracking, data reporting and regular analysis are your friend in this area: if you can put a number on your change rate, and either work to reduce it or use it to decide on the most appropriate fare, you will save money in the long run. When talking about the Lowest Logical Air Fare (LLAF), we strongly advise that you have a clear definition of what the ‘logical’ part of that title means for your company. Your travel management consultants can help you with these questions.

Data remains key. Clients need to continue striving to gain better visibility into their total travel spend, so they can have more informed and productive discussions with their supplier partners.

Christophe Renard, Vice President, CWT Solutions Group

In hotel booking, it’s also worth looking at the cost-efficiency of your strategy. Depending on the market, if your company is unlikely to book more than 150-300 people a year into a property, it’s probably not worth investing in negotiations with that property. Negotiate only where you are sure you will get a good deal, and use an integrated service like RoomIt by CWT to get the best deals on properties with a lower travel volume.

Be prepared for emergencies

Security and safety are always the greatest concern in ERM travel, especially with workers traveling to the most remote and risky locations. Make sure you work closely with your company’s risk management department as well as third party security companies to create integrated risk assessment and contingency plans for weather-related events, political security concerns and other potential dangers.

After impactful campaigns like #MeToo, we are increasingly seeing companies add specific travel recommendations concerned with women’s safety. Women are a growing part of the ERM travel population, so it might be worth considering whether your company needs to address similar concerns.

Use technology (and people) to your advantage

Technology plays an increasingly large role in everything we do, and travel booking is no exception. Mobile booking is on the rise too. We see more and more clients make use of our app CWT To Go, which shows you personalized travel suggestions, allowing you to make bookings with ease on the go.

That said, we advise clients to consider all available booking channels in order to find the perfect blend of human and digital for your company. Not all bookings can be made online: Online Booking Tools (OBTs) generally don’t include Offshore & Marine Fares, and don’t allow for group bookings. Define what you can easily do online and what is better left to travel consultants. This will save you money, and leaves consultants free to deal more efficiently with complex requests.

ERMobility: Behind-the-Scenes Powerhouse

The great difficulty of ERM travel is the many steps that it often involves, combining commercial bookings with campsite or dorm management, remote non-commercial travel and other highly variable factors. In many companies this workflow is disjointed: one person might be responsible for managing the business travel side, while workforce management is someone else’s responsibility; many different software systems tend to be involved.

ERMobility simplifies this process by creating one easy workflow for all the steps of ERM travel booking. We achieve this by integrating the client’s third party workforce management and logistics systems with commercial booking systems. This increases booking efficiency, minimizes errors when changes occur thanks to a reduction in manual touchpoints, improves user experience, and ultimately saves you money.

ERMobility is currently powered by Trobexis, Innfinity, Bright, Compas, Vantage and Vix. We aim to add more integrations in the future, so that as many clients as possible can benefit from this behind-the-scenes solution.

Always consider the traveler

Ultimately, your people are what matters most in keeping your company running. While it is advisable to keep travel policies tight in times of economic prosperity, it is important never to lose sight of the traveler and their needs when establishing those policies.

Generally, travelers want to do the right thing and follow policy guidelines, so we advise you to trust your travel population and let them inform your policy decisions. Handing them tools to encourage them and increase compliance, like customized mobile booking tools, interactive itineraries and reward schemes like CWT's Loyalty Booster, can help with this. You will gain a happier, healthier travel population, and ultimately a more robust policy.

Lowest Logical Air Fares are not a panacea. Always combine budgetary prudence, employee engagement, and your duty of care when establishing policies. Let your travelers lead policy change where necessary.

Tony Berry, Vice President, Global Program Management, CWT Energy, Resources & Marine

Appendix

Methodology and footnotes

Methodology

The projections in the 2019 Energy, Resources and Marine Travel Forecast are based on:

A statistical model, developed by GBTA with market and economic research firm, Rockport Analytics, that evaluates historical price behavior and forecasts future price references.
The market-specific expertise and travel industry knowledge of CWT and CWT Solutions Group personnel worldwide.
Information sourced from Moody’s Analytics, the International Monetary Fund Research Department, the United Nations and other leading organizations.

Projections are based on transaction data from CWT’s global client portfolio, including clients’ travel footprints and patterns, over the past nine years. Key macroeconomic and per-country indicators, such as current and expected GDP growth, the consumer price index, unemployment rates and crude oil prices, were used in the statistical model, as well as key supply-side drivers sourced from OAG and STR Global. All air statistics represent point of origin and include all trip types (long and short haul/domestic, continental and intercontinental).

About CWT Energy, Resources & Marine

We provide specialist travel management solutions for many of the world's leading companies in the oil & gas, mining, offshore, marine and alternative energies industries.

With our rich heritage and experience, we help our clients find the right solutions for their complex travel needs, often in some of the least accessible places on earth.